Finance

European Markets Poised to Become 2025’s Most Profitable Recovery Trade

European markets face challenges but hold recovery potential in 2025. Learn why undervalued European stocks could become top trades for investors.

European markets face a challenging outlook for 2025, grappling with U.S. tariff fears and political instability in France and Germany. Despite the uncertainty, investors are starting to see opportunities in undervalued European assets, with many predicting significant recovery potential if economic and political conditions stabilize.

European Markets Under Pressure

European markets are set to underperform compared to U.S. markets by the largest margin in over 25 years, according to MSCI data. The euro has slumped more than 5% against the dollar, with some analysts forecasting further declines if geopolitical and economic pressures persist.

The year 2024 has already been tough for Europe, with its financial markets struggling under the weight of U.S. tariff fears, slowing Chinese demand, and domestic political challenges. Yet, as valuations hit new lows, a growing number of investors believe European markets have priced in most of the bad news, presenting opportunities for those willing to take a long-term view.

“We believe Europe could be a positive surprise for underexposed investors,” said Caroline Gauthier, co-head of equities at Edmond de Rothschild.

Opportunities in Undervalued European Markets

While European stocks have risen a modest 4.6% this year, U.S. equities surged 29%, driven by AI-fueled growth in technology. This divergence highlights the attractive valuations in Europe, particularly in sectors such as automotive, luxury goods, and industrials.

Sonja Laud, CIO at Legal & General Investment Management, sees promise in sectors like car manufacturing and luxury goods, which could benefit if China’s slowdown eases and U.S. tariffs turn out less severe than feared.

Germany’s DAX index, up 4% in December, suggests growing optimism in European markets. Analysts point to economically cyclical sectors such as manufacturing, travel, and energy as prime candidates for recovery if conditions improve.

“Bearish positioning in Europe has reached extremes,” said Citi strategists, recommending investors start building positions in undervalued European assets.

Political and Economic Hurdles for European Markets

Despite the optimism, significant challenges remain. Germany is heading for snap elections in February 2025 after Olaf Scholz’s coalition collapsed. Leadership contender Friedrich Merz has proposed stimulus measures, but bipartisan support will be critical to implementing reforms.

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently downgraded its growth forecasts, with weak euro zone productivity and cautious consumer spending adding to the region’s woes. Euro zone households, facing uncertainty, continue to save rather than spend, further dampening recovery prospects.

Why European Markets May Outperform in 2025

Despite these obstacles, there are signs of stabilization. Citi’s economic surprise index for the euro zone, while still negative, shows a slowdown in the severity of negative data shocks. This hints at a potential bottoming out of the region’s economic struggles.

Kevin Thozet of Carmignac highlights opportunities in European multinationals that trade at lower valuations than their U.S. counterparts. Similarly, Columbia Threadneedle’s Steven Bell acknowledges the region’s struggles but sees value in beaten-down sectors, particularly in France and Germany.

Meanwhile, Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, predicts strong gains for the euro in 2025. Analysts argue that undervalued French stocks and other European assets could benefit significantly from easing political and economic tensions.

U.S. Tariff Risks Could Boost European Markets

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett predicts a significant U.S. market correction in 2025, driven by rising inflation and interest rates due to tariffs. If this occurs, global investors may turn to European markets, drawn by their relative affordability and untapped potential.

U.S. equity markets, dominated by tech giants, face concentration risks as a handful of stocks account for an outsized share of gains. This reliance makes them vulnerable to corrections, creating an opportunity for European stocks to attract capital.

“Cheap international alternatives to U.S. stocks could be a key theme in 2025,” Hartnett said, referencing European market potential.

What Lies Ahead for European Markets

While European markets face challenges from geopolitical uncertainty and weak economic data, there are reasons for optimism. Stabilizing economic indicators, attractive valuations, and growing interest from global investors suggest the region could emerge as a top recovery trade in 2025.

Investors are closely monitoring developments, including Germany’s elections and potential ECB stimulus, to identify the best opportunities in undervalued sectors. As conditions improve, European markets may deliver robust returns for those willing to act early.